Fragile Shell

The Fragile Shell of Civilization

“The hi-tech country we live in is a comfortable but fragile shell. Unfortunately, the government and citizens place reliance on that shell in providing protection and services. It’s just set up that way. When the shell cracks and breaks (not IF but WHEN), if we are not prepared, ready, and able to shift gears to confront and adapt to the problems that confront us, we will crack and break too.” DLH 9/2/2005

Preparing for emergencies requires common sense. People in Montana do not need to prepare for a Hurricane, just as those in Florida do not need to prepare for a blizzard. You must consider the probability of an event against the likely impact. A high probability event with low impact would be a local or regional weather event such as a moderate snowfall in Montana, or a tropical storm along the Atlantic seaboard. A low probability event with high impact are the more disaster type scenarios, such as a major earthquake, volcano, nuclear attack or asteroid strike.

Natural Disaster Events

There are several websites which monitor natural events, such as earthquakes and other natural disasters. The USGS National Hazard Support System allows for the monitoring and analysis of natural hazard events as they occur anywhere on the earth, http://nhss.cr.usgs.gov/ . Other links include NOAA - http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html , http://severewx.atmos.uiuc.edu/, http://www.usgs.gov/hazards/ - links to maps, http://www.bham.wednet.edu/technology/naturaldisasters.htm

As the maps in the following links show, the vast majority of counties in the nation have had a Presidential Disaster Declaration at one point or another since 1965. Some counties have had over 10 declarations! (http://www.fema.gov/pdf/hazard/map/declarationsmap1964_07.pdf)

Here are some of the natural events which have occurred or are likely to occur again.

(http://www.usgs.gov/hazards/)

Significant, seasonal or short term, changes to weather patterns such as El Nino/La Nina ('82/83, '97/98), Nor’easters and the Santa Anna Winds.

Blizzards - Rocky Mountains, Plains & Midwest December and January 2006-2007, Northeast February 1978, January 2005. In February 2006, New York City received about 27” of snow. From December 1-6, 1913, Denver received 46” of snow.

Wildfires in a city or forest. Large areas of Los Alamos, New Mexico burned in May 1999. In the summer of 2000, the Western U.S. saw 6.5million acres burn, 7.1million acres burned in the summer of 2002, and 8.6million acres in the summer of 2005. Colorado saw massive fires in the summer of 2002, California in the summer of 2003 and the spring and summer of 2003 & 2007. Texas and Oklahoma saw unrelenting fires from November 2005 through January 2006. Georgia and Florida saw record sized fires in May of 2007. http://www.nifc.gov/

Tornadoes - About 1,000 tornadoes hit the U.S. each year, killing an average of 60 people. The Midwest is often called “Tornado Alley” every spring & summer. The small town of Greensburg, Kansas had twelve residents killed and was 95% destroyed by an EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Scale – based on damage) tornado that was 1.7 miles wide left a 22-mile long damage path, on May 4, 2007. On May 3, 1999, Oklahoma City experienced an F5 tornado that killed 36.

Tornadoes have occurred in every state with only Alaska averaging less than one tornado per year (1953-2004). Over one-half of states have reported fatalities from tornadoes. Tornadoes most often occur between 1:00pm and 10:00pm, with peak activity between 4:00pm and 7:00pm. The majority of tornadoes occur in Texas and Oklahoma with "Tornado Alley" stretching form Texas to South Dakota to Illinois.

http://movies.warnerbros.com/twister/cmp/states.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/tornado/stalley.gif

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/tornado/tornadoalley500.jpg

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/tornado/small/avgt5304.gif

http://www.tornadoproject.com)

Earthquakes pose a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states.php?) The San Francisco Bay area saw major quakes on October 17, 1989, magnitude 7.1, and Northridge On January 17, 1994, magnitude 6.7. Alaska measured a 9.2 quake in 1964, and Chile had a 9.5 quake in 1960. Lesser quakes with some damage were felt in Seattle February 28, 2001, magnitude 6.8 and San Francisco July 20, 2007. The strongest quake felt in continental United States was in New Madrid, MO in December 1811 to January 1812, which was estimated at 8.7, a modern record. The significant damage area was a 272-mile radius from New Madrid. The quake was felt as far away as New England and rang bells in Maryland. (http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/prepare/factsheets/NewMadrid/ , http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/events/1811-1812.php ). The December 26, 2004 magnitude 9.0 quake rocked the Indian Ocean and was followed by a devastating tsunami.

Flooding, Flash & Seasonal – floods in the U.S. kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Seasonal flooding in the Midwest along the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio and tributary rivers occurs frequently in the spring and in 1993 killed 48 and caused $18 billion in damage. Other more localized flash floods, such as Colorado’s Big Thompson Canyon flood of 1976, and in Houston in June 2001 kill many and damage or destroy millions of dollars of property. www.floodsmart.gov

Sunspot and solar flare activity is typically on 11 year cycles during which violent storms or bursts on the surface of the sun increase solar output or brightness and send enormous waves of highly charged solar particles through space which can affect electrical distribution systems, satellites and radio/TV signals on earth. Interruptions were created in Quebec in 1989 and 2000 and Sweden in 2003. Pager and credit card transaction interruptions, relying on satellite communications, were attributed to a solar flare in April 1998. Global Positioning System accuracy was degraded due to solar activity in December 2006. Other, more active sunspot cycles are the 75-90-year "Gleissberg Cycle", the 200-500-year "Suess Cycle" and the 1,100-1,500-year "Bond Cycle."

Hurricanes & Tropical Storms - More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast. The east and gulf coasts of the United States are particularly vulnerable to these storms. In 2004, Florida saw four storms within six weeks. 2005 saw massive damage as Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma slammed the gulf coast from Florida to Texas. Hurricane Katrina, which hit Louisiana and Mississippi hardest in August 2005 had a damage area approximately 90,000 square miles, about the size of Pennsylvania and New York combined, or the size of the United Kingdom and left more than 1,000 dead. Hurricane Rita arrived less than a month later with about 1000 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. This was then followed by Hurricane Wilma hitting south Florida one month later. http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/ Map of 1325 storms 1851-2004

Volcanoes bring with them a host of potentially damaging effects. The initial blast will send material miles into the sky, causing damage as it falls miles away. Ash from the plume will spread into the atmosphere and be suspended for weeks, interfere with air traffic, interfere with motor vehicle engines, and can even affect climate. Molten lave from the volcano can create fires and consume everything in its path. The Pyroclastic flow, or lahar, is the mix of lava, melting snow and mud that flows out from the volcano, rapidly carrying the destruction downstream from the volcano. Seismic activity in the form of earthquakes typically accompanies eruptions. If the volcano is near the ocean of sea, a tsunami is likely.

The Volcanic Explosive Index (VEI) is used to measure volcanic activity. The Mt. St. Helens eruption of May 18, 1980 had a VEI of 5. Ash had blown 600+ miles in 10 hours following the eruption and circled the globe in less than 3 weeks. Krakatoa In the South Pacific, erupted on May 20, 1883 with a VEI rating of 6 and was heard 2891 miles away The ash was forced 31 miles high, encircled Earth in 13 days, cooled earth an average of 2.2°F, not returning to normal for 5 years. The total estimated energy yield was 200 megatons of TNT. The Philippines’ Mt. Pinatubo erupted in 1991 with a VEI of 5-6. There are thirteen known potential volcanoes in the Cascade Mountain range from California to Washington. Alaska has over 100 volcanoes and volcanic fields, of which 40 have been active in historic times. The strongest recorded eruption was a VEI of 7 in Indonesia in 1815. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Hazards/Where/WhereHaz.html )

Tsunamis along coastal areas can cause enormous damage and significant loss of life, as was seen in the December 2004 tsunami in Indonesia where over 270,000 were killed. The March 1964 Alaska earthquake created a 220 foot waves as it moved out to sea. The 1960 earthquake in Chile created waves over seven feet as far away as California and Alaska. Deaths & damage from the 1960 and 1964 quakes affected Hawaii as it was hit with 30 foot waves and Japan as it was hit with 21 foot waves.

Land and mudslides occur and can cause damage in all 50 States. Severe storms, earthquakes, volcanic activity, coastal wave attack, and wildfires can cause widespread slope instability. California frequently reports slides, particularly in January and February of 2005. The Piedmont of U.S. & other slopes with heavy rains or after long periods of precipitation are likely to face slide issues.

Extreme heat or cold spells create heavy drains on power suppliers, leading to power outages and weather related deaths. Every state, except Hawaii has experienced temperatures below 0°F. EVERY state has seen temperatures 100°F or higher. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wcstates.htm & http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wheat7.htm

Food shortages, such as from a crop failure, prolonged drought, disease outbreak, Mad Cow disease, Foot and Mouth, insect infestation, honey bee population decline, El Nino, La Nina, sabotage or terrorism could lead to long lines and short tempers at food distribution centers. When the reaction to localized shortages, such as following severe storms, is seen, if the situation were regional or nationwide, panic and desperation could set in as people desperately sought food for themselves and their families.

Multiple, simultaneous events, while unlikely, would exacerbate damage and further complicate rescue and recovery efforts. For example, on October 2, 2005, Taiwan was dealing with the category 4 Supertyphoon, Longwang, when it experienced a 5.4 earthquake.

Astronomical events, such as a meteor, comet or asteroid, would have varying effects, depending on the size. The Barringer Crater in Arizona was from a meteorite that was 150 feet across, weighed roughly 300,000 tons, and was traveling at a speed of 28,600 miles per hour, leaving a crater that is now nearly a mile wide and 570 feet deep, with a rim 150’ above the surrounding terrain. The most recent major encounter with a meteorite (asteroid or comet?) was June 30, 1908, when a 150' meteor exploded with the force of 10-15 megatons of TNT, 3-6 miles above the Tunguska River valley in Siberia. The shock wave knocked people off their feet and broke windows up to 400 miles away. The explosion leveled an estimated 60-80 million trees covering almost 840 square miles of forest, an area larger than that of Greater London, and almost the size of city limits of Dallas, Ft. Worth AND Houston combined (not including the metro areas), equal to the Lincoln, Nebraska metro area. Trees were scorched in a region 30 mi across near ground zero. Seismic instruments across Eurasia registered the event, estimated at 5.0 on the Richter scale. Atmospheric pressure changes were detected in London and dust particles were in the atmosphere around the world for months, producing an eerie glow at night. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event . USAF satellites record much smaller meteors exploding in the upper atmosphere regularly. Scientists have identified more than 150 meteorite impact sites. Evidence suggests that there may have been many thousands of other impacts over the course of the earth's history

Severe storms with rain, hail, lightning, tornados, wind and/or ice have disabled utilities and stranded residents for days to weeks. A severs storm in St. Louis on July 19, 2006 left hundreds of thousands without power for many days. January 1998 saw a massive ice storm hit the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada and was described as the worst ever to hit Canada. In February 1951, a storm crippled the south-central U.S. from Louisiana to Ohio. (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/totalthreat.html)

Global Warming, while the cause, whether solar, extrasolar, man made or geologically caused, and scope have yet to be fully determined and is debated, could have significant geopolitical consequences. Rising oceans, changing weather patterns, changes to flora and fauna habitat, changed precipitation patterns & amounts, could result in human migration and immigration causing regional political instability.

Human Caused events

Human events are usually political or economics based, such as a terrorist or other belligerent act by a nation-state or non-governmental sectarian group or can follow a significant natural disaster or event. At times, religious or ethnic tensions erupt into violence. Even an event as seemingly benign as a celebration following the win or loss of a sporting event can spiral out of control.

Protests, civil unrest, rioting and looting following ethnic tensions, such as the 1960’s Watts & Chicago riots, the riots following the Rodney King police beating trial verdict April 29 - May 3, 1992 which left more than 40 people dead, more than 4,000 injured, 12,000 arrested and caused an estimated $1 billion in property damage. In May 1996 the Cinco de Mayo celebrations in Denver got out of hand and resulted in a riot. Protests at the gathering of the World Trade Organization leaders in Seattle in the fall of 1999 and at the Republican National Convention in New York City in late summer 2004 disrupted citizens and businesses. Even small Warrensburg, Missouri saw a riot in May 1992. In the general chaos following natural disasters, such as in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina 2005, rioting and looting took place. Many cities have seen partying become a riot after sporting events without regard to whether their team won or lost. In October and November, 2005, French immigrant Muslims around Paris rioted over economic conditions, burning more than 1,000 cars each night in the cities surrounding Paris.

Other countries sometimes stand in awe at the reaction of the U.S. following disaster. "I am absolutely disgusted. After the tsunami our people, even the ones who lost everything, wanted to help the others who were suffering. Not a single tourist caught in the tsunami was mugged. Now with all this happening in the U.S. we can easily see where the civilized part of the world's population is." said Sajeewa Chinthaka, 36, Colombo, Sri Lanka. http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/02/MTFH62797_2005-09-02_14-16-45_BAU248384.html

“The devastation, chaos and mayhem embracing post-Katrina New Orleans has led one eyewitness reporter to describe it as a scene straight out of the apocalyptic movies that launched the career of one of Hollywood's hottest stars. "It's almost like a 'Mad Max' scene," Steve Harrigan of Fox News reported, referring to the violence-packed Mel Gibson action films in a post-nuclear disaster world. For instance, Harrigan reported he saw people with automatic weapons driving around the flooded streets in pick-up trucks in broad daylight, just like something out of the "wild West." During his broadcast, shots could be heard in the background, a building was burning and people on the street were carrying knives and other weapons”. (Scene from New Orleans: 'Mad Max', World Net Daily, 9/7/05, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=46115)

Technological accidents, interruptions & failures can cause severe interruptions to society. A computer system failure, such as a virus, hacker attack, or what was anticipated for Y2K could leave businesses and individuals without access to financial information or other business critical data for days or weeks. A telecommunications failure caused by a construction accident or system overload could leave systems down for hours or longer. A satellite glitch in April 1998 shut down credit card transactions and pagers for many hours.

A fire caused by a vagrant in the control room of the New York City subway system on January 23, 2005 disrupted over a half-million commuters and would take an estimated six to nine months to repair.

Banking and electronic financial transactions interruptions following a disaster, such as following the 9/11 attacks or after Katrina affect the speed of business and ability of consumers to purchase goods and services. “I’m just looking for any help I can get . . . .” "Throughout the region there were power outages, shortages of food, water and gas, and an overwhelming sense of uncertainty. In many places, credit cards were worthless. It was cash only - and long lines - for gas, water and food. It's everybody on his own..."USA Today September 1, 2005, page 1 by Larry Copeland, Laura Parker & Patrick O’Driscoll.

War in the 21^st century can take many forms, from conventional war between nation states, civil war, a Nuclear, Biological, Chemical (NBC) or radiological attack launched by an established nation to terrorism and cyber (computer) attacks.

The likelihood of a conventional attack on the United States is remote, but with old alliances between Russia and China rebuilding, nothing should be ignored. According to a Pentagon assessment report presented to Congress 7/19/2005: "Current trends in China's military modernization could provide China with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia - well beyond Taiwan - potentially posing a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region." They (China) "may be tempted to resort to force or coercion more quickly to press diplomatic advantage, advance security interests, or resolve disputes." source: The (Colorado Springs) Gazette, page 14A, July 20, 2005.

Growing ethnic tensions and diversity in the U.S. could lead to larger racial conflicts.

The results of a nuclear attack, not just on the U.S., but between nations half-way around the world could result in fallout reaching the U.S. Fallout from Nuclear tests or war in Asia, India or Middle East would likely be carried to the U.S. Fallout from a relatively small 300 kiloton Chinese test explosion on December 28, 1966 reached the U.S. on New Year’s Day 1967. Consider the spread of ash from Mt. St. Helens, what if it were fallout?

Electro-magnetic Pulse (EMP) from a nuclear device, or an EMP weapon would have a crippling effect on the shell as electrical circuits are overloaded and either require a reset or replacement on a staggering scale. . A large device detonated 250-300mi. over Kansas would affect all of continental U.S. As Sen. John Kyl, R-Ariz. put it: "Few if any people would die right away. But the loss of power would have a cascading effect on all aspects of U.S. society. Communication would be largely impossible. Lack of refrigeration would leave food rotting in warehouses, exacerbated by a lack of transportation as those vehicles still working simply ran out of gas (which is pumped with electricity). The inability to sanitize and distribute water would quickly threaten public health, not to mention the safety of anyone in the path of the inevitable fires, which would rage unchecked. And as we have seen in areas of natural and other disasters, such circumstances often result in a fairly rapid breakdown of social order."

"American society has grown so dependent on computer and other electrical systems that we have created our own Achilles' heel of vulnerability, ironically much greater than those of other, less developed nations," the senator wrote. "When deprived of power, we are in many ways helpless, as the New York City blackout made clear. In that case, power was restored quickly because adjacent areas could provide help. But a large-scale burnout caused by a broad EMP attack would create a much more difficult situation. Not only would there be nobody nearby to help, it could take years to replace destroyed equipment." (Iran plans to knock out U.S. with 1 nuclear bomb, Joseph Farah, 4/25/05, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=43956)

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett R-MD made the following comments Congress, on June 9, 2005:

In 1962, the military conducted nuclear testing under the code name of Operation Starfish, over the Johnston Atoll in the pacific. This was about 800 miles from Hawaii. A nuclear weapon was launched and detonated about 250 miles into the atmosphere. This charged the atmosphere to such a degree that power lines sparked and electronic equipment was damaged in Hawaii and satellites in low earth orbit began to lose their orbiting altitude. This was caused by the Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) of the weapon. Instruments intended to measure the effects of the blast were damaged due to the strength of the pulse.

The Russians conducted more extensive testing of EMP and, along with China, regularly use EMP as a common tactic in war games. During 1999 negotiations in Vienna on Kosovo, the Russians were upset at their lack of inclusion in the discussions and "joked" about taking out the US with sub-launched nuclear weapons detonated over the US. The effects of current Russian weapons are known to be two-hundred times greater than those over Johnston Atoll in 1962.

Iran has tested launching the mobile Shahab-3 missile. While outside observers declared the test a failure when the missile exploded at a high altitude, the Iranians called it a success. It would be a success if it carried a crude nuclear weapon, launched from international waters off the US coast and detonated over the US. The effects would cause wide spread outages over the US, taking an estimated eighteen months to two years to repair.

A 1997 Commission on Critical Infrastructure noted "EMP is one of a small number of threats that may hold at risk the continued existence of today's U.S. civil society."

What this (EMP strike) would do is to produce a society in which the only person you could talk to was the person next to you, unless you happened to be a ham operator with a vacuum tube set.

The number of U.S. adversaries capable of EMP attack is greater than during the Cold War. We may look back with some fondness on the Cold War. We then had only one potential adversary. We knew him quite well.

During the Cold War, we recognized that the more prepared an individual and a family was to be self-sufficient during that attack, the stronger we would be as a whole.

U.S. Strategy to address the EMP threat should balance prevention, preparation, protection and recovery.

(Source: Congressional Record, June 9, 2005, Page H4340-H4345, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett R-MD,. Exact text can be found by searching http://thomas.loc.gov/home/r109query.html)

The usual means of protecting electrical equipment against surges of current produced by lightning are generally ineffective against EMP. The protective measures are known, but to date all too few civilian installations have been protected against EMP effects. Three or four weapons skillfully spaced and detonated at high altitudes over the United States would produce EMP effects that might knock out most public power, most radio and TV broadcasting stations lacking special protection against these effects, and most radios connected to long antennas (power cables, cable TV, etc.) from Nuclear War Survival Skills, by Crosson Kearney of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1979 ed., page 17.

Cyber War from an individual, organization or government would bring much of today’s society to its’ knees as the flow if information either slowed or stopped in response to a threat or perceived threat. Many individuals or companies would disconnect their computer networks from the outside world in an effort to prevent further damage to or loss of data. Other networks would be overwhelmed with heavy traffic and be incapable of completing work in a timely manner.

What is believed to be the first direct attack on a nation occurred in the spring of 2007. Some have speculated that this was an attempt to probe the response of NATO countries to scaled attack, of what may be coming in the future.

“Following an affront to Russia over a war monument, Estonians found they could not access their Internet or read their mail. For nearly three weeks (4/27-5/16/2007) the life of the country had been disrupted. The entire state administration was paralyzed, banks came to a standstill and companies had to freeze their operations. It didn't take long for the problem to be diagnosed as a cyberattack by another country or a very well organized entity. While no one at this stage will point blaming fingers at any one country, Estonians have little doubt that it's Russia taking revenge. Immediately after the incident with the monument, Russian politicians were calling for an economic blockade of Estonia. The Estonian embassy in Moscow was attacked and Russian police turned a blind eye to violent protesters.

One person in the Estonian presidential administration said that the attacks were originating not only from civilian servers but also from servers belonging to the Russian government. And according to a statement in The Associated Press, Estonia's defense minister said there is a "possibility" of Russian government involvement in cyberattacks against Estonian Web sites.” http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=3184122 5/18/2007

Political action reacting to or in anticipation of significant events. Dramatic demographic, cultural or societal shifts could influence government policies with the potential for knee-jerk legislative or executive action, or citizen vigilante backlash. (i.e. European Muslim immigration and illegal immigration into the US by foreign nationals. Sharia law – cultural laws based on Islam using "arbitrators", such as permitted in Ontario, Canada since 1991, which also includes Jewish “courts” (http://www.youmeworks.com/sharia_canada.html) could lead to uprisings on all sids of the issue.

In such an uprising, a state of emergency, martial law, the declaration of a disaster area, mandatory curfews and evacuations may be ordered. Domestic violence, laws limiting liberty in the name of safety may be enacted.

Presidential orders are in place to allow for severe restrictions on individual liberties and extraordinary powers being given to the head of state in the event of a significant national disaster. See National Security Presidential Directive 51 (NSPD-51) or Homeland Security Presidential Directive 20 (HSPD-20), issued May 9, 2007.

A significant increase in organized crime or gang activity can lead to violence and unrest. Violent gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha or MS-13, are expanding in cities across the country. According to a recent report provided by the Los Angeles Police Department, 95 percent of all outstanding homicide warrants are for illegal aliens. Two-thirds of all LAPD felony warrants are for illegal aliens. The California Department of Justice estimates 60 percent of L.A. gang members are illegal aliens. Hal Lindsey commentary 5/4/2007 (http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55528 )

Biblical prophecies of persecution, natural disasters, chaos and tribulation would cause major disruptions and societal change.

Infrastructure failures, interruptions and outages of the power, water, sewer or heating fuels systems can lead to inconveniences or death depending on the type and degree of outage. In March 1993, the fresh water and sewage lines in Milwaukee were accidentally switched. In July 1996, two million were without power during a blackout affecting eight western states. A blizzard in September 1995 left much of Denver without power. An ice storm in January 1998 left much of Maine and Canada without power for one to two weeks. December 2000 into January 2001 saw massive blackouts in California. A December 2002 blizzard left one million without power on the east coast of the U.S. A grid system failure in August 2003 blacked out power to 50 million people in the northeast U.S. and Canada. A severe storm in the St. Louis area on July 19, 2006 left 600,000 people without power, some for up to a week.

Natural disasters or straining events, such as a hurricane or high runoff levels can lead to the failure of infrastructure deliveries and the collapse or failure of levy, dike and canal systems, such as was seen in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 or during periods of high runoff of the Mississippi and its’ tributaries.

Strikes, work slowdowns, boycotts or embargos by local or nationwide union organizations, such as the Teamsters delivering goods, the United Food and Commercial Workers in stocking and working in grocery stores, would affect the quantity and variety of food and goods in stores. Strikes or other labor tactics by fire, police or health care workers could affect safety and security of communities. An embargo, such as the OPEC embargo of the 1970’s would drastically affect oil supplies and prices and the mobility of our country.

Terrorist activities are designed to hit economic and security centers to create the greatest psychological trauma and create fear of the attackers such that the victim population changes their lifestyle and culture. Attacks on economic icons such as the World Trade Center, political and military headquarters, such as the Pentagon and white House, critical infrastructure providers, such as power generation and distribution centers, water treatment facilities, fuel refining and distribution facilities, and transportation facilities such as ports, trucking and rail systems, even “sacred” locations like schools and churches are designed to create a sense of insecurity and anxiety in the general population that the government is unable to provide for the security of the population.

In the early 21^st century, threats from Islamic extremists pose the most significant threat to the western culture. The February 26,1993 attack on the World Trade Center, the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, the July 7, 2005 subway attacks in London and the June 30, 2007 Glasgow, Scotland airport attacks were major attacks in the U.K. and U.S. carried out in the name of Islam. Over 15,000 people were killed in 2006 alone in the name of Islam around the world, most of which were in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Asia. The chart below, compiled from information at www.thereligionofpeace.com shows the number of people killed and injured by Islamist terrorists, beginning with the 9/11/2001 attacks.

Other terrorist activities have been carried out by anti-government extremists, militant environmentalists, religious cults such as the bombing of the Murrah Federal building in Oklahoma City on April 19^t, 1995, the Tokyo subway Sarin attack in March 20, 1995 which killed 11 and injured over 5,500, the sabotage of power lines in Oregon in January 2000 and the mailing of Anthrax in October 2001.

An October 2006 report from the Subcommittee on Investigations of the Committee on Homeland Security entitled: "A Line in the Sand: Confronting the Threat at the Southwest Border" implicated Venezuela's Hugo Chavez's as being complicit in aiding and abetting terrorists. "Venezuela is providing support - including identity documents - that could prove useful to radical Islamic groups. The Venezuelan government has issued thousands of cedulas, the equivalent of Social Security cards, to people from places such as Cuba, Columbia, and Middle Eastern nations that host foreign terrorist organizations." "Recently, several Pakistanis were apprehended at the U.S. - Mexican border with fraudulent Venezuelan documents." Chavez, "has been clearly talking to Iran about uranium." (Caracas is only 1360 miles from Miami, a hop, skip and jump for a medium range ballistic missile.) http://www.thedustininmansociety.org/docs/us_house_line_in_the_sand_report_2006oct16.pdf

Hazardous material leaks or spills, containing nuclear, biological and chemical compounds can be caused by accidents, sabotage/terrorism, following natural disaster, etc. Common sources include, manufacturing facilities, power generation plants, delivery system routes along highways, railroads, canals, etc., storage facilities, and government, private or academic research facilities.

Examples include the March 28, 1979 leak at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, the April 26,1986 explosion in Chernobyl, Russia, the Union Carbide leak in Bhopal, India on December 3, 1984 a chemical fire in August 2005 in Romulus, Michigan, or railroad accidents, such as in Boston in July 2001 and in Graniteville, South Carolina on January 6, 2005. Highways are frequently used to truck hazardous materials and will see hazardous material accidents and spills, sometimes with significant damage, such as the August 2005 accident in Utah where a truck carrying over sixteen tons of explosives rolled and exploded, leaving a 70’ x 25’ crater. Regions where waterways are large enough will have barge traffic to carry chemicals and materials and will also be susceptible to accidents, spills and leaks. Natural disasters can cause damage to storage or processing facilities and allow leaks of hazardous materials into water supplies and the surrounding country, such as damage to oil refineries following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and even in small Coffeyville, Kansas where a nearby refinery was flooded and spread oil over a wide area, ruining neighborhoods.

Public health emergencies such as an epidemic or larger pandemic are more likely in dense population centers. Diseases such as AIDS, ebola, influenza, Smallpox, West Nile virus, H5N1 bird flu, cholera, norovirus, plague, hanta virus or others following natural disasters are all possible as people travel quickly around the world and can thus spread the disease quickly.

A Pandemic is a rapidly developing and spreading virulent strain of a virus for which there are no vaccines, or vaccines are not readily available. During a pandemic, many times as many people will become seriously ill when compared to the usual rate. The fatality rate, normally 0.2%-0.35%, may rise to 2% or even as high as 17%.

Influenza pandemics will typically come in a series of two to three waves, with several months between waves. The second wave can often be much more severe than the first. In the 1918 pandemic, the second wave was responsible for over 90% of the deaths for the entire pandemic.

Pandemics typically end because all or most of the susceptible persons in the population have contracted the infection and have either died or developed immunity.

High population densities are a factor favoring epidemics, including influenza. In 1918, there were only 15 cities with a population of over one million. Today, there are over 400 cities with populations greater than one million.

(“Preparing for the Coming Influenza Pandemic” by Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP, ©2005)

Dr. Woodson found it hard to believe that the US would be at risk for a pandemic. “I couldn’t come to terms with the fact that our modern hospitals and medical systems couldn’t save us. Then I realized we were more vulnerable today than in 1918 because we live in cities, we’re so utterly dependent on food being brought in from outside and on the electrical grid, and also we’re much older. There are a lot of people alive today who are really frail, who are highly susceptible to flu.” In a disaster such as an earthquake or hurricane, help can come from outside the region, but “when we have a pandemic, there is no outside. There won’t be a cavalry coming over the hill to rescue us. We’ll all be on our own, each town, each village, each neighborhood, and the neighborhoods are going to need to pull together to take care of each other.”

In a pandemic, employees are likely to be too sick to go to work, grocery shelves will empty quickly, and there could be panic.

“Are you a sitting Duck for Bird Flu?” by Anita Manning, USA Today 12/6/2005

In the event of a Pandemic, the government may initially place voluntary restrictions on public and private gatherings including sporting events, schools, religious services, workplace gathering and daycare facilities. It is not inconceivable that mandatory restrictions could also be dictated.

Financial Market may experience cyclical corrections or a major collapse, particularly following an act of sabotage or terrorism against financial centers, such as was seen in October 1987 and during the fall and winter of 2001-2002. As was seen in 1987 and 2001, many jobs were lost as businesses tightened their belts, and some folded.

Systemic Failures caused as the result of the interconnected nature of our market or capitalist society. After the 9/11 attacks, all aircraft were grounded shutting down that portion of the transportation system, affecting overnight deliveries farther than a short drive away which affected the “Just-in-time” inventory system relied upon by so many businesses. After Hurricane Katrina, FedEx said “services and operations, including pick-ups, deliveries and retail locations, have been significantly impaired, with shipments being delayed and services possibly suspended in those areas. “ and after Hurricane Ophelia, “FedEx has implemented contingency plans, though services to some areas are closed or may be limited.”

It can be seen that the “Fragile Shell” of technology, which is the backbone of American and Western culture, has been frequently and regularly cracked by storms, natural disasters and accidents or deliberate actions of man. While it is impossible to prepare for all possible events and contingencies, it is prudent to be aware of the possible events, particularly those in your area or which are likely to occur in your area, and begin making preparations to protect yourself as well as your family and friends and to be able to survive and provide for them. As was seen in 2005 following the Hurricanes which struck the gulf coast, failing to take individual responsibility for one’s own needs often resulted in death and great damage to property.

Decide for yourself how severe you think the emergency or disaster situations likely to occur in your area will be, and decide what level of preparations you will make to respond to it. This is “Your Assessment.” Some people may decide that a few extra cans of food, some bottles of water and extra batteries are enough preparations, while at the other end of the spectrum are those who will relocate to a second home in a different region.

Some examples of levels of preparations would be:

i. 3-5 days of minor inconvenience.

This is what FEMA and the Red Cross recommend as a minimum.

ii. 2-4 weeks of significant disruption and difficulty

iii. 2-5 months of serious disruption to all sectors of life

iv . 6-12 months or more – a complete and prolonged lifestyle change

“We can’t expect meaningful federal support to be on the ground providing provisions in an organized manner until probably the seventh day.” “Our emergency response system is geared toward everyday emergencies, not disasters … People need to be able to help themselves.” (emphasis added) Eric Holdeman, with the King County, WA, Office of Emergency Management in Seattle, as quoted in “Storm recalls other disasters, fosters planning” Associated Press, The Gazette, page A17, September 18, 2005.

“What we’re asking people to do is to be prepared to take care of themselves and their families (for that length of time) … so that we can focus on putting fires out,” said Anne Marie Conroy, director of San Francisco’s Office of Emergency Services and Homeland Security.” “Storm recalls other disasters, fosters planning” Associated Press, The Gazette, page A17, September 18, 2005.

“Too many people relied on the government and others to take care of them.” Katie Clark commenting on the devastation in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, The World, Public Radio International, 9/1/05.

“The biggest lesson of 9-11 is if you ignore potential danger, it will become a real danger.” Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander NORAD & Northern Command, January 15, 2005.

Ultimately, very few people would be able to prepare sufficiently to meet all situations by themselves for a prolonged period. Only by pulling together as extended family or groups can the various needs of a family or community be met. However, it is the responsibility of each individual to acquire the knowledge, skills, supplies, and desire to not merely survive, but overcome adversity and continue to live and provide hope for the future generations.